In a recent post, we’ve discussed research by Ivy League professors who crunched numbers to show that all the job growth in the U.S. can be explained by the growth in gigs and not jobs! So at first glance, it does look like the answer to the question “Are gigs the new jobs?” must be a resounding “Yes!” But when you deconstruct it and look at all the factors, is that too simplistic a deduction?
It’s been predicted and reiterated numerous times, our blog included, that gigs will make up nearly half the workforce by the year 2020.
If we look at current trends in 2016, we see that businesses are still hiring permanent employees. Some workers are walking away from their current jobs to find new ones, some are being laid off and others are turning entrepreneurial to start their own businesses or become independent contractors. At the same time, some workers are retiring and new-to-the-market workers are joining in.
In all this activity, it’s truly difficult to determine the exact state of affairs. But let’s give it a try to see why alternative work arrangements may make up most of the new “jobs.”
Alternative work arrangements may involve temporary help agency workers, on-call workers, contract workers and independent contractors or freelancers. Here’s a quick look at some stats:
The on-demand economy and alternate work arrangements represent a new type of labor model and a new business model. Millions of workers in this new economy make money form online platforms that classify workers as independent contractors legitimately. However, forcing workers to take up contract jobs just to keep costs down is a lose-lose situation where the workers do not have job security and employers risk misclassification.
Those who are found guilty of misclassifying their workers may find themselves paying ruinous penalties that could potentially threaten to shut their operations down. Companies that take workers on as W-2 employees may find their labor costs being higher than their rivals’ – but they get the benefit of having them work consistent schedules and train them how they want.
So as you can see, it’s still too early to tell. And there is still the fudge factor, where a few employers, knowingly or not, are misclassifying their workers.
What do you think? Do you think gigs will be the new jobs in 2020?
Create your own time capsule
Make your prediction in the comments below, mark your calendar and come back in 2020 to see the results!
I think that it’s going to be pretty close that gigs will be on par with jobs on or near the year 2020 as more and more individuals, and especially younger generations, design their work around their lives instead of the other way around.
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